Four years ago Narendra Modi wave swept the country. People crowned him. They elected a leader whom they saw as a hope. For the first time in three decades, they gave clear majority to a single party. They saw in him the future. The opposition parties withered away. In these four years, the BJP won the elections in two-third of the states. If BJP and Modi think that it was their achievement, it is a mistake. People wanted a change. However, now that situation no longer exists. This becomes clear from the reported internal surveys of BJP. The report that BJP has lost grip in 152 out of 282 seats is not a small issue. Corruption has not increased. No major scam surfaced. Then why the image graph drastically fell like this. Whatever may be the reason, a serious discussion is on in BJP.
The details revealed by ‘Dainik Bhaskar’ are eight month old. Political circles say BJP is still strong. In view of Gujarat elections, BJP had conducted an internal survey to know the real situation but it took all precautions to ensure that the findings are not revealed. It somehow won the elections in Gujarat. The analysis of results of by-elections in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan help in easily understanding the findings of the survey. The results of recent elections to Karnataka assembly also made it clear that there are no chances of BJP repeating its glorious performance. Last time, BJP had won all the seats from Rajasthana and Gujarat. It bagged 90 percent seats in Madhya Pradesh. In Bihar, it dominated the scene with smaller allies. In these five states, which paved the way for BJP’s ascension to power in Delhi, BJP is facing a wave against it and to prove this there is no need for surveys. The developments in these states make it amply clear. In Uttar Pradesh, it is likely to win only 23 out of 71 seats. Party survey shows it may win only 12 out of 25 in Rajasthan, 10 out of 26 in Madhya Pradesh, 10 out of 22 in Bihar and just 5 in place of existing 23 in Maharashtra. In Punjab, it may lose both the seats it is currently holding.
There is no confirmation that the vote banks of Congress and other opposition parties have grown in the country. However, it is being increasingly reported that BJP will suffer massive defeat. Some decisions of Modi have turned people into the opponents of BJP. The first among these was demonetization announced in the name of controlling black money. All the people were forced to come on to roads. The achievements from this move were nil. Most of the black money will be in the form of real estate and benami. If assets, purchases, vehicles and bank accounts are linked to Aadhar and PAN, black money can be controlled in a short time. Anybody having some knowledge quickly understands it. Black money can’t be controlled overnight. But with wrong advise, Modi put his image at risk to take demonetization decision. As a result, his charishma waned among people. He got an opportunity to cut petrol prices but in the form of cesses, he exploited people. People don’t get to see corruption in contracts and sale of mineral resources but they feel the pain of problems they have to face every day and the direct burden falling on them. Here, people themselves had to experience the hardships as a result of demonetization and they had to themselves bear the burden of petrol prices. Thus it was as if Modi fought a battle with the people.
Congress-led UPA had to face the consequences of Coal and 2G scams. BJP and Modi fully exploited these scams. Actually, people don’t immediately get to know the loot of these resources. It was like mining by Gali Janardhan Reddy. People usually will be indifferent towards this. “How are we concerned?” will be their common question. However, people become immediately alert when there is direct burden on them. They get worried. In 1980 when Janata Party coalition government fell, one of the reasons apart from internal squabbles was sharp increase in the price of onions. If the opposition parties effectively use such issues to launch a movement, they can make the ruling party bow down. However, the opposition parties in the country are not united. They are divided on whether to go with the Congress or form third front. They are also greedy about the post of prime minister. When the opposition is in such a confusion, the prime minister’s graph is falling and for this he is alone to be blamed. If allies distance themselves and opposition parties ignore, there is no harm to him or BJP. However, the latest findings are because of his steps to distance people.