The country had seen a nation-wide survey conducted in September and was flashed on Republic TV the other day. The TV reports are carried in the print media and are being widely circulated in the social media.
The survey says “if elections are held now” to justify its claims. The survey had given an edge to the NDA this time too, though there is some decline in the number of seats compared to the 2014. Keeping the national predictions aside for some time and looking at the predictions in the Telugu States gives a rude shock to the ruling Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh. However, the ruling Telangana Rastra Samithi is placed in a comfortable position.
But the big question is that “if elections are held now.” The survey, however, did not say what if elections are held as per schedule. Because, the equations change fast and they are not static, particularly in politics.
The survey is good for the TRS because fall is just two seats. The TRS had won 11 Lok Sabha seats in the last election and the survey predicts 9 seats this time. He is set to fight a tough battle this time with the Congress going strong carrying the Opposition parties including the TDP. In this tough fight, winning 9 MP seats is good for the TRS.
In Andhra Pradesh, the YSR Congress had won 8 MP seats in the last elections, leaving 15 for the TDP and 2 for the BJP. The YSR Congress had also lost 3 MPs – two of them joined the TDP, while one remained unattached.
This time, the survey had given 21 MP seats to the YSR Congress leaving just 4 for the TDP. The BJP which has 2 MPs now will turn zero in the 2019 elections as per the survey. Winning 21 MP seats is a big victory for the YSR Congress and Jaganmohan Reddy. This would mean a whopping 125 to 130 MLA seats for the party in a 175 member Assembly. The TDP had won 102 MLA seats in the last elections and YSR Congress winning the 125 seats is a big and unquestionable victory for the party.
Still, the question, as per the survey, is “if elections are held now” remains to be hypothetical too in nature.