Fact Check: Did Antarctica face the impact of Global Warming in the last 70 years?
Did Antarctica face the impact of Global Warming in the last 70 years?
A viral Instagram video claims Antarctica has not warmed in over 70 years because humans have contributed only 40 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. The post features a headline stating, "Scientists Struggle to Understand Why Antarctica Hasn't Warmed for Over 70 Years Despite Rise in CO2." The video further argues that CO2 levels, being just 400 ppm overall, are insufficient to significantly affect the region’s climate.
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Fact Check:
There is substantial evidence that Antarctica has experienced warming over the last 70 years. The concentration of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere is approximately 422 ppm, with humans contributing about one-third of that—significantly more than the 40 ppm claimed, according to researchers.
The climate in Antarctica naturally varies across different regions of the vast continent, making it challenging to document and interpret temperature trends due to limited data, researchers told USA TODAY.
Despite this, evidence indicates a multi-decade warming trend in Antarctica. Mathieu Casado, a paleoclimate and polar meteorology researcher at the Climate and Environmental Sciences in France, stated in an email to USA TODAY that his team's analysis of Antarctic ice cores revealed a warming trend of approximately 0.4 to 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade between 1950 and 2005.
Other studies have also documented warming across Antarctica over the past several decades. While some regions have experienced periods of cooling during specific timeframes, many studies highlight significant warming trends in other areas.
Notably, researchers have found that Western Antarctica and the South Pole are warming at rates faster than the global average, underscoring the variability in climate patterns across the continent.
The headline featured in the video is taken from an article referencing a 2020 research paper. This paper, which analyzed a specific dataset through 2014, claimed that Antarctica had not warmed for 70 years. However, numerous other studies have reported warming trends across Antarctica beginning well before 2014.
According to NASA, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is significantly higher than the claim in the post, currently around 422 ppm. Gavin Schmidt, a NASA climate scientist and director of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies, explained to USA TODAY that humans have contributed approximately one-third of this total CO2 since the 1850s, equating to roughly 140 ppm, far exceeding the claimed 40 ppm.
In 1850, atmospheric CO2 levels were about 280 ppm, according to data from the European Environment Agency. Scientists can attribute the rise to over 422 ppm directly to human activities, as fossil fuel combustion produces carbon with a distinct ratio of heavy-to-light carbon atoms, leaving a measurable "fingerprint," according to NASA.
NASA also emphasizes that the CO2 and other greenhouse gases emitted by humans have been the driving force behind a significant and well-documented global warming trend.
The claim that Antarctica has not warmed for over 70 years due to limited human CO2 contributions is false.